Analytics · Macro Signal
The macro, scored.
Is the macro backdrop a tailwind or a headwind for Bitcoin? Each indicator's recent trend is scored supportive or restrictive — from free public Fed data.
Overall regime
Restrictive for Bitcoin
Net score -5 across 11 indicators
RestrictiveNeutralSupportive
Liquidity
Supportive- M2 Money Supply23,414+1.5%Supportive
- Fed Balance Sheet6,748,145−0.0%Neutral
- Reverse Repo0.15−89.7%Supportive
Rates
Restrictive- Fed Funds Rate3.88%+6.9%Restrictive
- 10-Year Treasury4.84%+4.1%Restrictive
- 2-Year Treasury4.46%+6.4%Restrictive
Dollar
Restrictive- US Dollar (Broad)121.67+1.6%Restrictive
Credit
Restrictive- High-Yield Spread3.48%+28.9%Restrictive
- Financial Conditions-0.46+14.7%Restrictive
Growth & Inflation
Restrictive- CPI (Inflation)336.30+1.1%Restrictive
- Unemployment4.10%0.0%Neutral
Our model, transparently: each indicator is scored by its ~3-month trend and whether rising helps or hurts Bitcoin liquidity/risk appetite. Source: FRED (Federal Reserve, public domain). Not financial advice.