Analytics · Macro Signal
The macro, scored.
Is the macro backdrop a tailwind or a headwind for Bitcoin? Each indicator's recent trend is scored supportive or restrictive — from free public Fed data.
Overall regime
Supportive for Bitcoin
Net score +3 across 11 indicators
RestrictiveNeutralSupportive
Liquidity
Supportive- M2 Money Supply23,218+2.0%Supportive
- Fed Balance Sheet6,730,912+0.4%Neutral
- Reverse Repo0.53−53.2%Supportive
Rates
Restrictive- Fed Funds Rate3.63%+0.3%Neutral
- 10-Year Treasury4.79%+6.7%Restrictive
- 2-Year Treasury4.39%+7.6%Restrictive
Dollar
Neutral- US Dollar (Broad)118.75−0.1%Neutral
Credit
Supportive- High-Yield Spread2.66%−2.9%Supportive
- Financial Conditions-0.56−9.6%Supportive
Growth & Inflation
Supportive- CPI (Inflation)332.81+0.1%Neutral
- Unemployment4.10%−4.7%Supportive
Our model, transparently: each indicator is scored by its ~3-month trend and whether rising helps or hurts Bitcoin liquidity/risk appetite. Source: FRED (Federal Reserve, public domain). Not financial advice.